On the 4th of November, OID, REACHOUT and AEW were hosting a session of the Science Practice Lab. This occasion was dedicated to shared analysis of the state of climate adaptation for the real estate sector in Europe. Here are some key takeaways.
REACHOUT – Shaping climate resilient cities
The rise of climate change is putting great pressure on our towns and cities and on our building stock, as natural disasters become more frequent and more intense. In order to help European cities to face this challenge, the European commission funded REACHOUT, research and innovation project to advance user-oriented climate services to support the implementation of the Green Deal. This project has for ambition help supported cities with analysis of exposure and vulnerability to climate hazard, formulate ambitions for more resilience, and select adaptation actions.
The Science Practice Lab is part of this analysis as it gathers professionals, scientists and experts to discuss climate adaptation subjects. The latest one was hosted by AEW and OID in Paris on the 4th of November.
Do not underestimate climate
The first key takeaway highlighted by a panel of scientists and analysts was that despite the rising frequency of extreme events, the impact of climate is still underestimated. On one hand, the intensity of climate events remains often overwhelming for the rare adaptation efforts deployed. On the other hand, we tend to tunnel on one risk forgetting that it could hide another one. As illustrated by Thijs Endendijk, from VU University Amsterdam, the regions exposed to salted water floods, are also often suffering from droughts and lack of drinkable water.
This greater awareness of climate risks should then spur us into action. Quentin Ghesquière from OXFAM stressed that, beyond assessing climate risks, there is an urgent need to take concrete actions. He commented on the graphics below, taken from an IPCC report, which illustrate that several European Member States lags in implementing actions, showing slower progress compared to risk assessment and action monitoring.
Fig. 1: Progress of National Adaptation in Europe. Source: IPCC, Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change, 2022.
Understand the range of impact
Second, and that was the main element of the first panel gathered by the Science Practice Lab, one needs to understand the whole range of impact climate risks are casting.
The first range is the physical one, to which the sector is especially exposed given its immobile nature.
The second is the financial one, namely the impact that climate change is likely to have on the financial ramifications on which the real estate sector is based. Banks, investors and insurers will be more and more aware of climate issues, and the risk does not have to materialize for the impact to be felt. Overexposure and maladaptation become just as critical as an actual loss. In Belgium, the introduction of a resilience label had an immediate impact on property values, despite the low exposure of the region where it was applied, says Kees van Ginkel, from Deltares.
The third dimension is social impact. Climate change intensifies social inequalities and, consequently, vulnerability to climate risks. The real estate sector must maintain resilience across all building types to ensure the safety and well-being of all occupants, avoiding social or reputational risks. Addressing adaptation through a lens of inequality is essential, and incorporating social vulnerability indicators into building risk assessments is crucial. As Oxfam has reported, climate impacts disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, including the elderly, women, and girls, who tend to have fewer resources and protections. The graphic below, also extracted from the 2022 IPCC report, highlights the differences in potential adaptation (light orange) between higher-income and lower-income populations. It shows that while the current level of adaptation is relatively similar between these two groups—except for water and food security—planned policies are likely to widen the adaptation gap across all sectors studied (dark orange).
Fig. 2 : The urban adaptation gap Source : IPCC, Sixth Assessment Report, Climate Change, 2022.
he need for data…
Finally, to connect these aspects and better monitor climate risks, climate data is essential. As highlighted in the first panel discussion, many platforms offer free data access, such as the Copernicus website, DRIAS sites, and the IPCC Atlas. There are also open-access tools available, like the OID’s Bat-ADAPT tool and Climadiag, designed for municipalities.
However, data quality and precision levels are not always optimal. While prospective data on coastal evolution is not yet available on open source in France, ongoing discussions within the PNACC-3 aim to address these limitations. For instance, hydrological projections based on TRACC are expected to be available on the Météo-France DRIAS-Eau portal by the end of 2025. Additionally, the National Coastal Monitoring Committee (CNTC) is working to develop a “+4°C coastal doctrine.”
Such quality is crucial to build clear and collective adaptation objectives. Similar to the Paris Agreement for mitigation, robust and consistent national frameworks are crucial to define what constitutes effective adaptation while considering the inherent uncertainties in these goals, and to be relevant they must rely on concrete and common data.
The best example in this regard is the EU taxonomy framework as it provides a solid foundation for engaging all stakeholders in climate adaptation discussions. As Zac Taylor pointed out, some municipalities are even striving to become taxonomy-compliant regarding climate adaptation, reflecting the growing importance of a unified approach in addressing these pressing challenges. But to be effective in full at EU scale it need to be powered by common data on this aspects.
All of these elements call for collaborative efforts that go beyond individual buildings. Addressing climate risks requires cross-sector public-private partnerships, involving property managers, insurers, local green committees, and local authorities. This synergy, combining both bottom-up and top-down approaches, can help clarify roles, develop viable business models for adaptation investments, and strengthen connections between stakeholders and local communities.
Article written with Morgane Moullie, Project Manager
